The last time Kenneth Walker III carried the ball for the Seahawks, he ran for 135 yards in the Super Bowl and walked off the field as its MVP. A few weeks earlier, he scored three touchdowns in the 41-6 rout of the 49ers that started the whole run. Seattle drafted him in the second round in 2022. He gave this team four seasons, 3,555 regular-season yards, 29 touchdowns and a championship. What seemed like a marriage that would last, ended when the two sides chose to part ways this past offseason.

Most will frame it as a mistake Seattle made. The truth is likely less clearcut. There is reason to believe Walker did not want to come back. What we do know is there was at least one team out there willing to pay him more money than Seattle. That team feels pretty happy about their decision. Seattle likely will need a little more time with their rookie runner, Jadarian Price, and soon-to-be-returning, starter, Zach Charbonnet, before truly feeling any regret.

Walker and Jaxon Smith-Njigba gave Seattle two of the best playmakers in football on the same field. Defenses had to account for both. This year Smith-Njigba carries that load alone, and it has been a heavy one.

Walker comes back to Lumen Field having topped 100 yards in four of his five games for the unbeaten Chiefs. Seattle has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 35 straight games. James Cook was the last to do it, on Oct. 27, 2024. Walker deserves cheers when he runs out of the tunnel. Then the attention turns to seeing that streak live to see 36.

Walker has done more for Kansas City than pile up yards. He changed the way teams defend Patrick Mahomes. Defenses spent the past few seasons sitting in light boxes and daring the Chiefs to run. Mahomes averaged 7.0, 6.7 and 7.1 yards per attempt the last three years. Now teams have to load up for Walker, and Mahomes looks like Mahomes again.

Light boxes (six or fewer) against the Chiefs: 56.2% last year to 42.1% this year

Heavy boxes (eight or more): 18.8% to 28.8%

Mahomes yards per attempt: 7.1 to 8.3

The Seahawks are living the opposite story. Nobody respects their run game anymore.

Heavy boxes against Seattle: 37.3% last year to 24.3% this year

Light boxes: 30.2% to 39.1%

Two-high shells on dropbacks: 51.7% to 62.8%

That leaves Sam Darnold beating two-high coverage from the pocket, without a run game to pull a safety down. It has not gone well. Seattle ranks 24th in EPA per play and 30th with 12 giveaways. Five lost fumbles alone have cost the offense about 4.4 points per game. All three Seattle losses came by 3 points or fewer.

The strangest number on this offense might be the three-and-outs. Seattle has the seventh-fewest in the NFL. That is not a compliment. The Seahawks would be better off punting more. Drives that end in a giveaway after one or two plays are far worse than a three-and-out.

Seattle gets 10 days to prepare after its Thursday night loss in Denver. Mike Macdonald is 6-1 as a head coach with 10 or more days to prepare, and his teams have beaten the spread by an average of 15.2 points in those games. On a normal week, that margin is about 2 points. Give Macdonald extra time, and he uses it.

He will need all that time and more to prepare for this matchup. Seattle wins with its interior defensive line. Kansas City may have the best interior offensive line in football. The Chiefs are weakest at tackle, and Seattle’s edge rushers have not cashed in against weak tackles this season. Seattle has been awful against man coverage, and the Chiefs play plenty of it. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has spent his career picking apart protection plans, including Kyle Shanahan’s in two Super Bowls. Seattle’s protection is the part of this offense most in need of repair.

There are reasons for hope. Anthony Bradford and Zach Charbonnet are expected back. Tory Horton should see more snaps. Kansas City has its own tackle trouble. Left tackle Josh Simmons has not played all season, and right tackle Jaylon Moore missed practice Wednesday with a concussion. The Chiefs could line up with two backups on the edges. They also have yet to see a defense as good as Seattle’s.

Kansas City is the better team right now. Vegas still has Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite, and the HB Model has the Seahawks by about a point. The matchups lean Kansas City. Seattle needs to play a clean game on offense, and it has not played one yet with Darnold at quarterback. The path is clear enough. Stop Walker on the ground. Take away the screen game. Protect the football. Do those three things, and a win over the unbeaten Chiefs flips the script on what has been a troubling four weeks.

Lineup Notes

Bradford was limited in practice Wednesday and has been designated to return from injured reserve. Charbonnet was a full participant and needs to come off the physically unable to perform list. Both are expected to play.

Bradford matters more than people think. He allowed pressure at about half the rate of the players who replaced him at right guard. He also frees center Jalen Sundell to help Grey Zabel again. Zabel has allowed pressure on 1.5% of his snaps with help from the center and 13% when left alone. He has been alone on almost half his snaps.

Drake Thomas missed practice again. Tyrice Knight is next up at linebacker, and he was limited with an oblique injury. DeMarcus Lawrence got a rest day.

For Kansas City, Rashee Rice (hamstring, knee) did not practice. Tyquan Thornton, the team’s deep threat, is on injured reserve. Travis Kelce was limited with an ankle injury, and L’Jarius Sneed was limited with a knee injury. Both starting tackles sat out. Kahlil Benson, an undrafted rookie, has started at left tackle all season. Joshua Ezeudu took over at right tackle when Moore left last week.

Team Overview

The Chiefs lead the NFL in point differential and net success rate. They rank second in net EPA per play and total DVOA. Seattle ranks seventh in point differential and 10th in DVOA. The gap is real, but it is narrower than 5-0 against 3-3 suggests.

The turnover line is the one that hurts. Kansas City is plus-5, second in the league. Seattle is minus-3, 21st.

Styles Make Fights

The Seahawks rank fourth in screen EPA. The Chiefs rank fourth defending screens. The one thing Seattle has done well all season runs straight into a defense built to stop it.

Seattle’s best run concept is man blocking, fifth in EPA per rush. It calls it on just 12% of its runs. Outside zone makes up 43% of Seattle’s runs and ranks 28th. Kansas City has stopped the few man runs it has seen, but it has seen fewer of them than any defense in the league.

The Chiefs lead the NFL in play-action rate (35% of dropbacks) and screen rate (17%). The screens may be the biggest concern in this game. Seattle ranks 30th defending them. Walker in space against a linebacker is not a fair fight.

Kansas City’s best run call is counter, second in the league in EPA per rush. Seattle has not faced a single counter run all season. Expect to see one early.

Seahawks Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

Overview

Kansas City ranks third in EPA per play on defense and 12th in DVOA, which adjusts for opponents. The raw numbers have been a bit kinder than the schedule.

There is one opening. The Chiefs defense ranks 29th in EPA per play in the first quarter. After that it ranks first, fifth and fifth. Seattle has held a first-half lead in just one of its last three games. The Seahawks need a fast start, and a scripted opening drive with Bradford and Charbonnet back is the place to find one.

Passing game

The Chiefs pressure the quarterback without finishing.

Chiefs pressure rate: 38.7% (second)

Chiefs sack rate: 4% (28th)

Seattle takes a long time to give up pressure, second at 2.91 seconds. It still ranks 23rd in sack rate.

Man coverage is the biggest problem for this offense. Seattle ranks 31st in EPA per dropback against man. Kansas City plays man on 27.9% of dropbacks and ranks fourth against the pass when it does. Defenses are not playing man any differently against Seattle this year. Seattle is what changed.

EPA per dropback against man: plus-0.21 last year to minus-0.54 this year

Pressure rate against man: 28% to 60%

Free rushers against man: 14% to 27.5%

A free rusher on more than a quarter of those snaps points to the protection calls.

Protection also broke the play-action game, and play action carried the 2025 offense. Early-down play action was worth plus-0.37 EPA per dropback last year. This year it is about zero. With a clean pocket, it works as well as it ever did. The problem is the rush gets home on 52% of those dropbacks, up from 29%.

George Karlaftis is the Chiefs’ best pass rusher. He gets pressure on 18.7% of his rushes, sixth among edge rushers, and he lines up across from left tackles far more than right tackles. That means Charles Cross, Seattle’s best pass blocker. R. Mason Thomas sees right tackles most. He is a speed rusher who will test Abraham Lucas, who has allowed pressure on 7.7% of his snaps, 52nd of 65 tackles. Seattle has not allowed a pressure on the 28 snaps Lucas got a chip this season. Expect more chips.

Chris Jones gets pressure on just 9% of his rushes, 51st among 82 interior rushers. The heat comes from the edges and from Spagnuolo’s calls.

Receiving game

Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranks third in DVOA among WR1s. The Chiefs rank first against WR1s. Expect brackets. Spagnuolo is one of the best at taking away your top option.

The player matchup model still likes one spot for him. Smith-Njigba projects for 23 yards on the 18 snaps he is likely to share with Nohl Williams, the most beatable corner in Kansas City’s group. Rookie Mansoor Delane has been very good on the other side.

Smith-Njigba is not the same player against man this year. Neither is anyone else.

Smith-Njigba yards per route run against man: 4.11 last year to 1.24 this year

AJ Barner: 2.39 to 0.39

If the Chiefs bracket Smith-Njigba, someone else has to win one-on-one. Barner and Horton are the candidates. Horton played 47% of the snaps in Denver and was Seattle’s best wide receiver against man last year after Smith-Njigba. This is the week to find out what he can do.

Run game

Kansas City has not put eight or more defenders in the box on a single run this season. It is the only defense in the league at zero. More than half its run snaps come against six or fewer. The Chiefs will stay light and dare Seattle to run.

Seattle should take the dare out of 11 personnel. The Seahawks rank third in EPA per rush out of 11, and Kansas City ranks 17th defending it. Only five teams line up in 11 personnel less often than Seattle.

Bradford helps here too. With him at right guard last year, Seattle’s backs reached contact a yard past the line on runs to the right. With his replacements, they have been hit at or behind the line.

Charbonnet brings more than carries. He has converted 74% of his short-yardage runs and has never lost a fumble in 415 career carries. He also picks up the blitz. George Holani has allowed 18.4 pressures per 100 pass blocks this season. Charbonnet allowed about 6 per 100 in 2023 and 2024. He does not need to be Walker to make a difference.

Chiefs key advantages on defense

Spagnuolo against this protection is the biggest one. Pressure comes from everywhere, behind a lot of man coverage. The run defense ranks fourth in DVOA and first in rush success rate, and the Chiefs rarely miss tackles.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

There are not many. Kansas City starts slowly on defense. The light boxes leave room to run. Smith-Njigba gets his shot at Williams. The right side of the line gets its starting guard back.

Chiefs Offense vs. Seahawks Defense

Overview

This is strength against strength. Kansas City ranks second in success rate and explosive play rate and third in DVOA. Seattle’s defense ranks second in EPA per play, success rate and DVOA, and third in explosive play rate.

The Chiefs like to get big to run the football. They use two tight ends on 32% of snaps, sixth-most in the league, and three tight ends on 10%. They rank first in EPA per rush out of 13 personnel. Seattle ranks first defending 13 personnel and second against 12. If the Seahawks stay in nickel and stop the run against heavy sets, the way they have all year, they have a real chance. If the Chiefs go heavy and move the ball on the ground, Seattle is in trouble.

Pass game

Mahomes may be the best quarterback in the NFL under pressure. Kansas City ranks sixth in EPA when pressured and third in sack rate allowed. The Chiefs also rank third against the blitz. Seattle blitzes on just 21.6% of dropbacks, fourth-fewest in the league. Keep rushing four.

The interior of the Chiefs line is elite in pass protection.

Kingsley Suamataia, left guard: 1.5% pressure rate (second of 64 guards)

Creed Humphrey, center: 1.1% (second of 32 centers)

Trey Smith, right guard: 2.3% (fifth of 64 guards)

Those three have allowed eight pressures between them all season. The player matchup model projects Humphrey to hold Byron Murphy II to almost nothing.

The tackles are the soft spot. Benson has allowed pressure on 8.1% of his snaps, 59th of 65 tackles, and he has given up at least one in every game. Moore may not play. Seattle’s edge rushers have to win this game. Derick Hall and Uchenna Nwosu both get pressure on 12.4% of their rushes, below average. Lawrence is at 15%, but he faces right tackles most. Rushing from Seattle’s left side, toward the right tackle, he gets pressure 18.3% of the time. He has rushed from the right side, across from Benson, just 28 times. Moving him over is worth a look.

Receiving game

The Chiefs rank second in the NFL against man coverage and 20th against zone. Seattle plays zone on 84.5% of its dropbacks and ranks third defending it. This is Seattle’s best matchup in the game.

Kansas City is also the best offense in the league against dime and ranks 17th against nickel. Nickel is the safer call, and it is Seattle’s base defense anyway.

Kelce ranks second among tight ends in DVOA. Seattle ranks second against tight ends. That one is a fair fight. Walker has 22 targets out of the backfield, and Seattle has been below average against running backs. The receiver room is thin. Xavier Worthy is the top target, Thornton is out and Rice may be.

Running game

Kansas City ranks second in EPA per rush and second in explosive run rate. Walker has 665 yards on 106 carries, 6.3 per carry. Seattle ranks third in EPA per rush allowed and second in run defense DVOA.

Leonard Williams has been one of the best run defenders in football, third of 103 interior linemen in Net Positive Plays per run snap. Murphy is the mirror image. He ranks sixth among interior rushers in pressure rate and 78th of 103 against the run. Walker and the Chiefs will find out which one is in the gap.

Chiefs key advantages on offense

Walker comes first. Then the screen game against the league’s 30th-ranked screen defense. Counter runs Seattle has not seen. Mahomes on third and long, where the Chiefs rank second and Seattle ranks 20th in EPA allowed. Seattle has to get off the field.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

Zone coverage against an offense that has struggled against it. Elite play against heavy personnel. A Chiefs line that may be down to two backup tackles. The red zone sets up as one bad unit against another: Kansas City ranks 26th in red zone success rate, and Seattle ranks last in red zone defense. Something has to give there too.

Special Teams

Special teams lean Seattle. The Seahawks rank 14th in special teams DVOA, and the Chiefs rank 26th. Seattle ranks ninth on field goals and extra points. Kansas City ranks 26th.

Seattle’s punting ranks first, against a Chiefs punt return unit that ranks 30th. Michael Dickson has not punted well the last few games, so that edge needs him back in form.

The return game is the weak spot. Seattle ranks last in kick return. Its kickoff coverage ranks 25th, against a Chiefs kick return unit that ranks seventh.

Key to a Chiefs win

Walker goes over 100 yards. The screens find space. Spagnuolo gets home and forces Darnold into the kind of mistakes that have already cost Seattle three games.

Key to a Seahawks win

Protect Darnold. Get the ball out quickly, and to the team in blue. Find another player to beat man coverage outside of Smith-Njigba.