Pain is a part of the NFL. The Seahawks are dealing with the physical and emotional toll of an intense divisional loss to the 49ers on Sunday. Their schedule does them no favors by sending them on the road for a Thursday Night Football game against a rugged, if unremarkable, Denver Broncos squad.

There was a time when this was the biggest rivalry for Seahawks fans. John Elway was the villian and often the victor back then. Now, it is the Seahawks who are reviled by Broncos fans after the Russell Wilson swindle by John Schneider. This will be the first game in Denver for the Seahawks since they netted draft picks that turned into: Charles Cross, Devon Witherspoon, Boye Mafe, and Derick Hall. Drew Lock also remains with the team after that trade and has one fewer win this season than Broncos starter, Bo Nix. Unfortunately, he also has one more win than the Seahawks starter, Sam Darnold.

The Seahawks offense is scuffling. That might be a generous assessment. Scuffling implies a good group is going through a rough patch. They have yet to prove they are good. In fact, they have been closer to proving the opposite. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is electric. It would be hard to make the case that any other player on offense is playing to the standard expected and needed. Cross would be the other one who comes close.

A step toward good would be to simply stop causing harm. An offense that struggles to move the ball and score points sounds terrible. That would be an improvement over an offense that turns the ball over and struggles to move the ball. Both Seattle losses this season have been directly tied to turnovers.

Denver does not excel at taking the ball away, and one of their best takeaway artists will not play in this one. The 49ers were even worse at taking the ball away, though, until they met the Seahawks.

Most important in this game for Seattle is protecting the football. Punts are better than giveaways. The Seahawks defense has significant advantages over the Broncos offense. What had been the best offensive line in the NFL has had a major slide this season.

• Broncos pressure rate: 26.5% last year (3rd) to 44.8% this year (27th)
• Four-man rush: pressure against four or fewer rushers went from 4th to 28th
• Quick pressure: Pressure inside 2.5 seconds went from 5th to 26th. Nix’s average time to throw barely moved (2.72 to 2.84 seconds), so this is the line losing early.

Center Luke Wattenberg has already allowed more pressures in five games this year (14) than he did all of last season (13). Running backs and tight ends have been charged with 13 pressures, as many as all of 2025. Nine came from running backs.

Byron Murphy II has started his own form of Beast Mode with three sacks in the past two games, and had the top pressure rate of any defensive tackle in the NFL last week, while facing the offensive line that had not surrendered a sack in their first four games. His matchup with either Wattenberg or guard Ben Powers heavily favors Seattle.

Denver is also missing one of their preferred targets at wide receiver in Pat Bryant. Courtland Sutton is a good contested catcher, and will likely try to get some matchups with Josh Jobe, who has struggled making plays on the ball so far this season. Keep an eye on Nehemiah Pritchett and Trevon Diggs potentially getting more snaps.

Nix has been awful this year. He is inaccurate and inefficient. His escapability has always been part of his appeal, but his accuracy on the move has been among the worst in the league. A Seattle secondary that has specialized in taking the ball away has to be licking their chops.

Denver’s offense has struggled on the ground as well. In some ways, both teams feature feckless offenses. A key difference is Seattle has a better defense with better health. The Broncos are missing two of their best players in cornerback, Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga. Not only are those players great at what they do, they allow the Broncos to play a certain style of defense that has been especially problematic for Seattle this year.

Denver plays 30% man coverage when Surtain is available. They have dropped to 9% man coverage when he is unavailable. They also blitz less. Seattle has been awful against man coverage this year and pretty good against zone.

Seattle has had their own pass protection problems. Abe Lucas and Grey Zabel have not been playing to their standards so far. Denver is missing one of their edge pass rushers, though, as Jonathan Cooper is still suspended. Nik Bonitto is a threat, but he rushes almost exclusively from the defense’s right side against what will be Cross. Zach Allen is in the same tier of elite defensive tackles as Murphy and Leonard Williams. A huge part of this game for Denver will be decided by how productive Allen and Bonitto can be.

Sam Darnold can help his line, and himself, by getting rid of the ball far faster than he has so far. He needs to be moving through his progressions quickly and utilizing his checkdowns more often. Just like pass rush on defense benefits from good coverage, pass protection on offense benefits from quick delivery of the football.

Seattle is the better team. Denver has the home field advantage and gets Seattle on a short week where their physicality may be less pronounced. The Seahawks are favored in a close one.

Lineup Notes

I am continuing to evolve my lineup design throughout the season. This depth chart view hopefully gives a better perspective on who is missing and how far down on the depth chart each team is at this point.

Drake Thomas is out for this one. Look for Tyrice Knight to get some snaps, but that also leaves room for Pritchett and Diggs to get on the field more often.

Team Overview

Styles Make Fights

The Seahawks offense leans on play action (33% of dropbacks, 2nd most), under center (34% of dropbacks, 2nd most), outside zone (41% of runs, 4th most) and power (13% of runs, 2nd most).

The Seahawks offense ranks 2nd in screen EPA (+0.377). The Broncos defense ranks 31st (+0.306).

The Broncos offense leans on shotgun (86% of dropbacks, 3rd most).

Seahawks Offense vs Broncos Defense

Overview

Passing game

The Seahawks offense ranks 11th in quick pressures (≤2.5s) (44.7%). The Broncos defense ranks 20th (44.6%).

Receiving game

The Broncos defense ranks 10th against WR2s (-14.9%). Rashid Shaheed ranks 31st in DVOA among WR2s (-50.5%).

Run game

The Broncos defense ranks 9th in stuffed rate (20.3%). The Seahawks offense ranks 28th (22.0%).

Broncos key advantages on defense

Denver has been excellent against the pass, but are missing two key pieces that allowed them to post those marks. Their biggest advantages are Allen and Bonitto.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

Seattle has not been a good run team, but this might be the game that changes. Denver is not great there.

Broncos Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Overview

The Seahawks defense ranks 2nd in explosive play rate (6.7%). The Broncos offense ranks 28th (6.7%).

Pass game

Receiving game

The Seahawks defense ranks 8th in EPA per dropback vs man (-0.141). The Broncos offense ranks 32nd (-0.394).

Running game

The Seahawks defense ranks 2nd in EPA per rush (-0.155). The Broncos offense ranks 22nd (-0.098).

Broncos key advantages on offense

There are not many. Waddle is a fast receiver and Sutton can be a physical player on contested catches. Evan Engram has his moments, but has not been the threat he once was. Sean Payton has been a good play caller for years, and will be motivated to beat Mike Macdonald. It is hard to believe this Broncos offensive line is this bad. They could revert back to being dominant again.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

Seattle has the front seven and the secondary to give the Broncos fits. The play on offense may be bad, but the defense has been right up there with the best in the league.

Special Teams

The Seahawks rank 5th in field goals & XP (4.5). The Broncos rank 30th (-5.2).

The Broncos rank 8th in kickoffs (3.5). The Seahawks rank 30th in kick return (-4.3).

Key to a Broncos win

Denver needs Allen and Bonitto to get home and cause more Seahawks turnovers. They also need Payton to scheme up some easy throws for Nix.

Key to a Seahawks win

Protect the football. Make plays on contested catches, and start limiting teams to field goals in the red zone.