The Seahawks are in trouble. It would be easy to look at a close loss to the undefeated 49ers and come to the conclusion that they are just a few adjustments away from being the best team in football. Try not throwing an interception on your first pass attempt for the second straight game. Try not throwing an interception on your first pass attempt of the opening drive of each half. Maybe consider not fumbling the ball when nobody is near you or at your own goalline. The mistakes were plentiful. The solutions are not. Seattle has a championship level defense, and a losing offense. Dark Side defense, meet The Phantom Offense. May the force be with you.
Jar Jar Binks was more composed and had fewer pratfalls than this Seahawks offense. Sam Darnold has been the worst version of himself. It is confounding how he could have taken this large of a step backwards after getting the chance to play with largely the same players in the same scheme for the first time in many years. The idea was that winning a Super Bowl would get the monkey off his back and allow him to step forward into an even high tier of play. Instead, he looks like the guy we witnessed against the Rams in Week 11 last season. Except, on repeat.
Some will say it the loss of Kenneth Walker III and the run game. They are wrong. Of course a healthy run game would be helping Darnold and the whole offense, but the Seahawks run offense last season was among the worst in the NFL through 10 weeks (and really through 15 weeks), and Darnold was the top passer in the NFL by almost any metric during that early stretch. Saying Darnold needs a good run game is a simplistic trope that has already been disproven. If only it was that easy.
The run game has nothing to do with the poor decisions Darnold is making every game. He threw into double coverage to Rashid Shaheed again, after doing it in Washington a few weeks back. He is forcing the ball into covered receivers. Watching the person who has your team’s fate in their hands repeatedly make poor decisions leads to a hopeless resignation that can spiral. Darnold may have the highest spin rate in the NFL, but this is one spiral he needs to stop.
We are left wondering why this is happening. There are those who will say he has always been this player and is just returning to form. Others will wonder if his injury is contributing to problems. My mind goes to the connection between him and new offensive coordinator, Brian Fleury.
They do not appear to have hit it off on a personal level, and continue to try to feel each other out on the field. This is not to say there is animosity or tension between the two, but there are no signs that they have developed a strong bond.
Great coordinators give their quarterbacks answers at all times. Darnold’s answers feel both incomplete and insufficient. He is one of the best deep ball passers in the game. He is excellent under center. He is excellent on play action. When Darnold was dealing over the first half of last season, there was a great mix of quick reads and explosive passing. The explosives are still showing up, but the quick reads are gone and are leading to far more volatilty.
Darnold came in to 2025 intent on getting rid of the ball faster than he ever had in his career. That fell off after his performance in Los Angeles, but somewhat returned in the playoffs. His time to throw has reverted to his pre-Seahawks days, and is far slower than any time last season.
Sam Darnold: Time to Throw Quick early in 2025, slower late, slower still in 2026 |  |
2025 Wks 1-10 | 2025 Wks 11-18 | 2025 Playoffs | 2026 So far |
Notice that he was throwing both more quickly and further down the field (9.3 yard average depth of target) in the first 10 weeks of last season. That is almost the holy grail of quarterback play. Deeper throws usually require more time to develop and drive up time to throw. Seattle was getting the best of both worlds for that stretch. It came back again in the playoffs, albeit a little slower.
What are the things that contribute to a quarterback holding onto the ball longer? The initial reads on the play are well covered, which requires the QB to go further into his progressions. The pass protection is breaking down quickly, requiring the QB to scramble and find space to make a throw. Locking onto one read for too long can cause a QB to miss the timing window for secondary and tertiary reads. Overall discomfort in the offense or confusion about what the defense is presenting can lead to more indecision. There is evidence that all of these things might be occurring. One curious trend is how much Darnold and the offense has struggled against man coverage compared to last season.
Sam Darnold vs. Man Coverage Man coverage went from a strength to his biggest problem. Zone held steady. | |
Against man +0.275→−0.600 EPA per dropback · 2025 → 2026 | Against zone +0.116→+0.048 EPA per dropback · 2025 → 2026 |
| 2025 | 2026 | Change |
Darnold was eating man coverage alive last season. It has been absolute poison this year. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is certainly not worse than a year ago. It may be that defenses are deciding they do not respect the other targets and are giving safety help on Smith-Njigba. This feels like a problem with the play designs and the offensive coordinator. They should have answers against man coverage. Rub routes, screens, and featuring players who excel in beating man coverage like Tory Horton Jr. would seem to be available.
The pressure numbers, however, jump off the page. Seattle is getting worse line play from Abe Lucas and Grey Zabel in pass protection compared to a year ago. It is not clear why that is the case. Neither have been listed as having injuries.
One area that came up when studying the differences between Klint Kubiak and Kyle Shanahan this offseason, as a way to anticipate where Fleury might be different, was how often Shanahan sent players out in routes versus keeping players in to help in protection. Kubiak had more max protect plays dialed up. Early indications are that might be something to revisit.
Seattle: Routes vs. Protection Seattle keeps a seventh blocker in half as often. Route counts barely moved. | |
2025 Wks 1-10 | 2025 Wks 11-18 | 2026 Wks 1-2 | 2026 Wks 3-5 |
While the number of players in routes is largely the same as last season, the percentage of max protect calls is less than half what it was under Kubiak. That is putting more stress on the offensive line, and they have not held up. This is not enough to explain all of the line struggles, but adding a few more snaps per game where they are getting extra help might be worth exploring.
Another thing that showed up was that Shanahan played a lot more shotgun and Kubiak had more under center snaps. Darnold was an assassin under center and had some weakness in shotgun. The question was whether Fleury would lean into Darnold’s strength or try to incorporate more shotgun and see if he could elevate Darnold’s performance from that formation.
He has largely kept Darnold at the same under center rate as last season on pass plays. The split remains massive between how he performs in each.
Darnold: Under Center vs Shotgun Dropbacks by alignment. Shotgun includes pistol. Ranks among NFL QBs. | |
| 2025 season 514 dropbacks | Under center | Edge | Shotgun |
| Share of dropbacks NFL: 18% / 82% | 33% | 67% | |||
| EPA per dropback NFL: +0.14 / +0.02 | 6th+0.32 | 23rd+0.04 | |||
| Success rate NFL: 50% / 45% | 7th55% | 4th51% | |||
| Yards per attempt NFL: 7.9 / 6.9 | 2nd10.7 | 10th7.5 | |||
| INT rate NFL: 2.0% / 2.2% | 21st3.8% | 31st2.6% |
| Share of dropbacks NFL: 21% / 79% | 35% | 65% | |||
| EPA per dropback NFL: +0.11 / +0.05 | 21st-0.03 | 28th-0.14 | |||
| Success rate NFL: 50% / 44% | 4th59% | 31st37% | |||
| Yards per attempt NFL: 7.6 / 7.0 | 4th9.9 | 20th6.6 | |||
| INT rate NFL: 1.7% / 2.2% | 32nd9.1% | 28th3.1% |
A hidden challenge in this for Fleury is that even if Darnold is best under center, it also where he is turning the ball over more and getting sacked. Three of the sacks against the Niners came on under center dropbacks. Teams have almost eliminated the bread-and-butter bootleg game.
It might seem off to spend this much time on the quarterback when the running backs are the ones who fumbled three times, including one that turned into a defensive touchdown. The reality is that passing offense, and the play of your quarterback has a far higher impact on the performance of your team than the backfield. Darnold is also a former top draft pick and Super Bowl winner who is going to be up for a massive contract extension. George Holani is an undrafted free agent and Emanuel Wilson was as well. The problem in the backfield is likely solved by different players. The hope is that the problem at the quarterback position is solved without needing to change players.
The offensive staff needs to problem solve a group that is allowing more pressure, struggling to open up holes in the run game, struggling to make quick and low risk reads, and struggling to hold onto the football.
A logical place to start is the turnovers. This defense paired with an offense that does not turn the ball over will beat most opponents, even if they only score 17-20 points per game. It will be ugly. There will be a lot of punting. But it is the most direct path to winning and stopping the bleeding. Darnold can be coached to get rid of the ball quicker and take more throwaways when his first read is not there. The running backs can be coached to protect the ball or take a seat. Seattle is likely one week away from getting Zach Charbonnet back, who does not fumble. They are also a week away from getting Anthony Bradford back from injured reserve, which should help the run game.
Reducing or eliminating the turnovers will not be enough to beat elite teams. The Broncos are not elite this season. The Chiefs might be. With a game in four days, that is the change to prioritize.
A defense playing this well can get you to the playoffs with a mediocre offense. Beating the best teams in the league requires more. The path to being a good offense is unclear. Maybe Charbonnet and Bradford come back and are a big boost. Maybe Jadarian Price comes back and addresses his ball security issues and is a boost. Maybe the offensive line starts to play better or Darnold gets more comfortable in the offense. Maybe Fleury learns his personnel better and acclimates to play calling in a way that unlocks some consistency and sustainability.
None of that is a given. A lot of things need to fall into place for the Seahawks offense to be good enough for this team to be a true contender. It is early in the season, but the urgency is high. They have lost multiple games that they should have won. The 49ers will almost certainly be better the next time Seattle faces them. Nick Bosa may be back. Their fullback will be back. Their wide receivers may be back. They may add another edge rusher via trade. And they have a significant cushion now to play with.
There will be those who compare this to the 3-2 start last season that included a home loss to the 49ers, or to the Week 11 loss to the Rams. Those are superficial comparisons. The Seahawks were playing inspired and high level football in weeks two through five last year. Their loss to the Bucs was largely due to injuries to a defense we knew was elite. There are no signs this Seahawks offense is elite, even at full health. The loss to the Rams came after Darnold and the offense had been lighting the league on fire for 10 weeks. They have only lit themselves on fire so far. The connection and accountability and work ethic that made them champions last season will certainly be counted on to help this year, but the work to be done is significantly different.
Weeping about the loss to the 49ers serves no purpose. Worrying about the division race or the playoffs is pointless. Seattle needs to look inward and get their house in order. The path ahead is treacherous. Survival is not guaranteed. Adversity is here. This team has always responded when times are tough. The story of this season is being written. The first chapter has felt more like Ned Stark getting executed in Game of Thrones than Luke Skywalker meeting Obi-Wan Kenobi. The next chance to chance to advance the plot comes against an old foe in Denver in a few days.