Tale of the Tape: Seahawks vs 49ers

Here we are again. Seahawks versus 49ers. One team enters undefeated. The other team enters with a dust-free Lombardi Trophy. Whichever team wins will leave in first place in the NFL’s toughest division and have an inside track to staying there. A loss dooms neither team, but would put Seattle in more of a pickle at 3-2 with a tough stretch ahead, than the 49ers at 4-1 with an easy stretch coming.

This preview will highlight every statistical edge one way or another. What transcends the numbers is the bitterness of this rivalry between fan bases and between locker rooms. The 49ers saw their season end in humiliating fashion in this building. It was over from the opening kickoff. The rout was so impressive, it played a role in the Khosla family deciding to sell their stake in the 49ers and become the new owners of the Seahawks.

49er players have made it no secret that this game was circled on their schedule. They will feature some players who were injured in that contest like Fred Warner and George Kittle. They also have some new faces like Mike Evans and some old/new faces in Dre Greenlaw and Deebo Samuel. Their offense is red hot, tops in the NFL. Brock Purdy is getting MVP chatter and has yet to be sacked through four games.

Seahawks fans have seen this before.

Purdy was scoring 5 TDs a game and the offense was averaging 42.3 points when they hosted the Seahawks for a chance to win the division and top seed in the NFC. They played Seattle in 2 of the next 3 games and averaged 4.5 points, without a single touchdown.

Even in the Week 1 loss to the 49ers last season, it took two really poor plays from Riq Woolen to allow the 49ers to score 17 points. Purdy threw two interceptions in that game and was under pressure at a rate that was the highest of his career. That was also not unique.

Purdy goes from a 94th percentile quarterback when playing anyone else, to the equivalent of Desmond Ridder when playing a Mike Macdonald defense. He has 6 touchdowns and 9 interceptions over his career against Macdonald. He has thrown an interception in four straight games versus Seattle. Even though he is one of the best in the game at evading pressure, he has been under duress a lot when Macdonald is on the other sideline.

Purdy loves throwing over the middle with crossing routes. It is his second-most targeted route, and he kills people with a +0.46 epa per dropback efficiency and 10.7 yards per target. Against Macdonald, that route drops to -0.60 epa per dropback and 3.3 yards per target. He also loves throwing out routes (20% of his targets). Macdonald drops those from +0.44 epa per dropback to -0.07.

All quarterbacks have comfort zones and favorite throws. Macdonald has forced Purdy away from his comfort zone and he has not had a counter to that yet.

None of that means the 49ers will come into this game intimidated. Kyle Shanahan has had a full offseason to figure out how to attack this defense. Macdonald deployed a lot of Cover 6 shells against the 49ers. San Francisco has showed considerable improvement against that coverage this season (-0.10 epa/dropback to +0.56). He also used a lot of Cover 4. Shanahan and Purdy have improved there as well (+0.05 to +0.44).

The addition of Mike Evans has been huge (literally and figuratively). Seattle has struggled at times this season with contested catches down the field. It will be interesting if the Seahawks utilize a taller corner with proven ball skills like Trevon Diggs in this game.

Samuel has been a more dynamic player than he was during his last season in San Francisco. He has given Seattle trouble in the past. Shanahan deploys him as a runner and a receiver. One of the few places the Seahawks defense has struggled is against the screen pass. They rank 30th in the NFL in that category. The 49ers are 3rd in screen efficiency.

As much as the focus will be on Purdy and Shanahan versus Macdonald and the Dark Side defense, the key to the 49ers putting up points will probably come down to Christian McCaffrey on the ground and takeaways. Seattle smothered him last season, but he has far more efficient this year. If he has is getting 4-6 yards instead of 1-3 yards, this game will look very different than the ones that ended last season.

San Francisco has done well on defense in spite of a slew of injuries, but the have not taken the ball away very well. They have only two on the season, and rank 27th in that department. Their run defense was a question mark to begin with, and has been further impacted by injuries on the defensive line.

Warner and Greenlaw remain a dynamic duo at the second level. Their ability to defend the run and cover the middle of the field is arguably the biggest difference from the games to end last season. Throw in Kenneth Walker III being elsewhere, Zach Charbonnet not yet back from injury, and Jadarian Price on IR, and there is a real question whether Seattle has the horses to exploit the 49ers run defense.

That could leave a heavier burden on Sam Darnold and the passing game. The good news for Seattle is the 49ers are near the bottom of the league in pressure rate and sack rate, and Nick Bosa will not be playing this week. Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are a lot to handle from a clean pocket. Tory Horton Jr. was also not available last year, and brings a lot to the table.

One of the most fascinating aspects of this chess match will be how Shanahan will handle the absence of fullback Kyle Juszczyk. The 49ers run 21 personnel (a fullback and a running back) more than any offense in the NFL. It is their bread-and-butter, and they wreak havoc when they deploy it. There are not many examples of Shanahan having to play without his fullback. The last substantial example was back in 2019, when he missed four straight games.

Generally, Shanahan has stopped using it entirely, and resorts to 12 personnel (two tight ends). The problem there is that Jake Tonges is their second tight end and he’s on injured reserve. There is a substantial drop-off to Luke Farrell.

While this would seem to be an advantage for the Seahawks, it does provide far more mystery and uncertainty for Macdonald in the game plan. There is not a lot to go on. He may lean on former 49er tight end coach, Brian Fleury, to help think through how Shanahan would handle it and how to counter it.

My quantitative power rankings have the 49ers at #1 and the Seahawks at #2. They are neck-and-neck. Do not expect another 41-6 laugher. Do not expect the Seahawks to make the same mistakes on 3rd down with penalties like they have done the past two games. Look for both teams to deliver some of the best football the NFL has to offer. Seattle is the slight favorite for a reason.

NOTE: I am trying a different format this week with my analysis largely up above and a few notes/callouts below. My hope is this feels more cohesive, and the charts are largely self-explanatory. Please let me know what you think!

Lineup Notes

Keep an eye on Leonard Williams for the Seahawks, who left the game on Sunday with an ankle injury. Initial reports are positive, but his availability and health has massive implications on this game. Ty Okada may be back for his first game of the season. We will see if he regains his starting role.

Osa Odighizuwa was one of the best additions in the NFL this offseason. Gracen Halten is a disruptive interior rusher as well. Between those two, the interior defensive line is much more athletic than it was a year ago.

Upton Stout has a question mark with an AC joint sprain. He is a spark plug and physical presence despite his size. His absence would be felt. Malik Mustapha taking over for Marques Sigle is not a big step down. It is more of a different style of player. Mustapha is a big hitter and play maker. He is not the athlete Sigle is in coverage.

HB Live with Grant Cohn

LiveSat, Oct 10 · 4 to 6 PM

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Team Overview

Seahawks vs 49ers
SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON
Seahawksvs49ers
Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON
EFFICIENCY
Offence minus what the defence allows
Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON
DVOA
Season DVOA · the side-by-side matchup lives on the offense and defense graphics
Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON
Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

Styles Make Fights

Seahawks Offensive Style
SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON
Seahawksvs49ers
Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON
RUN CONCEPTS
Seahawks's most-used concepts · only Sümer charts these · its EPA model differs
Source: SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON
Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Seahawks offense uses play action on 35% of dropbacks (2nd most), and it has worked: 5th in EPA (+0.375). The 49ers defense ranks 22nd against it (+0.209). However, the Seahawks have decreased their use of play action every week of the season.

Seattle being the best offense in the league at screen plays is new territory for Seahawks fans. The 49ers have struggled to defend them, which is hard to imagine with Warner and Greenlaw out there.

49ers Offensive Style
SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON
49ersvsSeahawks
Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON
RUN CONCEPTS
49ers's most-used concepts · only Sümer charts these · its EPA model differs
Source: SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON
Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The 49ers offense uses screens on 10% of dropbacks (9th most), and they have worked: 3rd in EPA (+0.454). The Seahawks defense ranks 30th against them (+0.278). This could be a key aspect of this game.

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Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense

Overview

Seahawks Offense
SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON
Seahawksvs49ers
Source: NFLVERSE + FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON
DVOA BY PHASE
Season DVOA
Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON
PERSONNEL
Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage
Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON
Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

Passing game

Seahawks Passing Game
SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON
Seahawksvs49ers
Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON
PASS DVOA
Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON
PASS PROTECTION
Pressure as FTN charts it, which matches Next Gen Stats
Source: NFLVERSE + FTN FANTASY · REGULAR SEASON
UNDER PRESSURE
Sümer's charting, which counts more hurries as pressure · quick = share of its pressures
Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON
PERSONNEL — PASSING
Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage, not efficiency
Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON
DEFENSIVE SHELLS
Shells Seahawks FACED · usage is 49ers's
Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON
Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Seahawks offense ranks 1st in time to pressure (3.01s). The 49ers defense ranks 24th at creating pressure (25.8%) and 27th in quick pressures (40.0%).

From a clean pocket the Seahawks offense ranks 3rd (+0.657). Under pressure it falls to 17th (-0.341).

Receiving game

Cooper Kupp ranks 10th in DVOA among WR3s (+30.6%). The 49ers defense ranks 31st against WR3s (+44.5%).

HB Live with Grant Cohn

LiveSat, Oct 10 · 4 to 6 PM

HB LIVE! Grant Cohn Joins Seahawks vs 49ers Preview

Lowlander Brewing

Come hang with Grant Cohn and me as we preview the 49ers game. Grab a beer and bring your takes.

Get tickets

Run game

Seahawks Run Game
SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON
Seahawksvs49ers
Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON
RUSH DVOA
Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON
AT THE LINE
Power = 3rd/4th & 2 or less converted · Stuffed = run stopped at or behind the line
Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON
PERSONNEL — RUNNING
Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage, not efficiency
Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON
DEFENSIVE SHELLS
Shells Seahawks FACED · usage is 49ers's
Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON
Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Seahawks offense ranks 30th in rush DVOA (-28.6%). The 49ers defense ranks 7th in run defense DVOA (-22.8%).

49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Overview

Seahawks Defense
SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON
49ersvsSeahawks
Source: NFLVERSE + FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON
DVOA BY PHASE
Season DVOA
Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON
PERSONNEL
Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage
Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON
Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

Pass DVOA: the 49ers offense 1st (+89.4%) against the Seahawks defense 4th (-11.0%). Rush DVOA: the 49ers offense 9th (+2.6%) against the Seahawks defense 1st (-37.5%).

The 49ers offense has turned it over once (1st). The Seahawks defense has 7 takeaways (3rd).

The 49ers offense lines up in 21 personnel on 42% of snaps (1st most) and ranks 5th from it (+0.171). The Seahawks defense ranks 21st against it (+0.004). That will all look different without the 49ers fullback.

Pass game

Seahawks Pass Defense
SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON
49ersvsSeahawks
Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON
PASS DVOA
Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON
PASS PROTECTION
Pressure as FTN charts it, which matches Next Gen Stats
Source: NFLVERSE + FTN FANTASY · REGULAR SEASON
UNDER PRESSURE
Sümer's charting, which counts more hurries as pressure · quick = share of its pressures
Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON
PERSONNEL — PASSING
Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage, not efficiency
Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON
DEFENSIVE SHELLS
Shells 49ers FACED · usage is Seahawks's
Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON
Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Seahawks defense ranks 4th at creating pressure (36.9%). The 49ers offense ranks 2nd in pressure rate allowed (20.3%) and has not given up a sack (0.0%, 1st).

From a clean pocket the 49ers offense ranks 1st (+0.690). Under pressure it still ranks 1st (+0.311). The Seahawks defense ranks 15th once it gets pressure (-0.314).

Receiving game

Mike Evans ranks 5th in DVOA among WR1s (+26.9%). The Seahawks defense ranks 21st against WR1s (+13.3%).

Christian McCaffrey ranks 11th in DVOA among RBs (+19.7%). The Seahawks defense ranks 23rd against RBs (+27.6%).

Running game

Seahawks Run Defense
SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON
49ersvsSeahawks
Source: NFLVERSE · REGULAR SEASON
RUSH DVOA
Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON
AT THE LINE
Power = 3rd/4th & 2 or less converted · Stuffed = run stopped at or behind the line
Source: FTN FANTASY · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON
PERSONNEL — RUNNING
Most-used groupings · rank in parentheses is usage, not efficiency
Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON
DEFENSIVE SHELLS
Shells 49ers FACED · usage is Seahawks's
Source: NFLVERSE + SÜMER SPORTS · REGULAR SEASON
Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Seahawks defense ranks 1st in run defense DVOA (-37.5%). The 49ers offense ranks 9th in rush DVOA (+2.6%).

Special Teams

Seahawks Special Teams
SEA vs SF · 2026 REGULAR SEASON
Seahawksvs49ers
Source: FTN FANTASY ALMANAC · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON
SEAHAWKS KICKING & COVERING
Source: FTN FANTASY ALMANAC · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON
SEAHAWKS RETURNING
Source: FTN FANTASY ALMANAC · THROUGH WEEK 4 · REGULAR SEASON
Bar length = size of the gapHAWKBLOGGER

The Seahawks rank 12th in field goals & XP (0.8). The 49ers rank 30th (-4.2).

The Seahawks rank 1st in punting (5.8). The 49ers rank 30th in punt return (-2.8).

Key to a 49ers win

McCaffrey is the straw that stirs the drink. If he can be productive, the 49ers will have a good shot in this one. They will also need to take away a weakened Seahawks run game.

Key to a Seahawks win

Keep the pressure on Purdy. As good as he is scrambling around, he will give Seattle chances to take the ball away. Darnold needs to be his best self. The 49ers do not give up explosive plays. He and Smith-Njigba will need to find a way to change that. If he can put up 25+ points, the Seahawks have a great chance to win another one against the 49ers.